Talarico’s cash and ad lead turns the Texas Senate race into a toss-up

More than three months later, MAGA Inc.’s wallet has so far been closed.

Senate GOP leaders warned Trump before the May primary that if Paxton won, Trump’s operation would have to bankroll the general election.

Talarico’s side has spent roughly seven times more than the GOP since June.

The warning came as Trump weighed endorsing Paxton over Sen. John Cornyn before the May primary.

Since June, Democrats have outspent Republicans on ads about $31.5 million to $4.7 million, AdImpact said.

It remains unclear how much MAGA Inc. will spend of its $400-million-plus war chest on Paxton.

A pro-Paxton outside group unveiled an $800,000 ad blitz on Friday.

Talarico’s campaign accounts for about $31.3 million of that spending.

Paxton’s campaign has spent just over $150,000 on advertising since June.

A recent Supreme Court ruling gave groups such as the RNC new power to coordinate spending with campaigns.

Top Republicans had told the White House a Cornyn victory would be far less expensive.

The NRSC and Senate Leadership Fund, which backed Cornyn, have looked for MAGA Inc. to take the lead in the general election.

Democrats need four seats to flip the Senate.

MAGA Inc. declined to preview midterm spending plans.

At least four groups, including Lone Star Liberty PAC and Cruz-aligned Truth and Courage PAC, have targeted Talarico on TV.

MAGA Inc. scheduled a Monday Michigan event headlined by Vice President JD Vance.

Talarico’s campaign cited a 2019 Paxton trip to China with other attorneys general.

Republicans are eyeing Elon Musk’s America PAC as potential aid to Paxton.

NRSC chair Tim Scott did not say directly if his committee would bankroll Paxton’s air war.

CNN said polls show no clear leader between Talarico and Paxton.

When CNN asked if he planned to campaign for Paxton, Cornyn deadpanned.

Republican ad spending for Paxton surpassed Talarico’s for the first time in the week of Trump’s visit.

Early voting was less than two months away when Trump appeared in Houston on Thursday.

Talarico has spent over $25 million on ads since late May, AdImpact said, including about $10.7 million on broadcast and $8.4 million on streaming.

Paxton’s campaign spent $119,000 in that period, nearly all digital.

Two months earlier, the same poll had Paxton in the lead.

In the week of Aug. 25, Republicans spent $3,076,372 on ads, outpacing Democrats’ $2,543,647.

Talarico unveiled a Mark Cuban-endorsed plan to break up Big Medicine.

Protecting America’s Future, seeded by Tim Dunn, ran a $120,000 anti-Talarico ad mostly in Corpus Christi.

Texas Bullpen reported MAGA Inc. fielded a Texas message-testing poll with possible Talarico attacks.

Cornyn refuses to use his fundraising network to help Paxton.

Cornyn lost the GOP runoff to Paxton by nearly 28 points.

The report is datelined Washington and concerns a senator.

Through Aug. 20, Talarico’s campaign outspent Paxton’s on ads by more than 200 to 1, AdImpact said.

Paxton faces a substantial financial disadvantage.

Texas Democrats have not won a statewide office in more than three decades.

Cruz attacked Talarico over comments about gender, immigration and capitalism.

Paxton has denied wrongdoing.

The ad debuted during TCU’s opener against North Carolina.

Democrats believe this is their moment to flip Texas after decades of failed efforts.

The Fox poll found 59% concerned about Paxton’s character and 47% concerned Talarico is too extreme.

Talarico previously said there are six sexes.

Among extremely motivated voters, Talarico led 53% to 47%.

The fundraising difference is stark.

Cruz-affiliated Truth and Courage PAC launched a more than $1.7 million ad campaign attacking Talarico.

Talarico’s campaign called the new ad a lie.

The piece concerns a U.S. senator.

Cruz has a lot riding on the election.

Elon Musk will reportedly put $100 million to $200 million into competitive midterms, including Texas.

Cook Political Report and Fox News both moved the U.S. Senate race.

Cook also shifted its Texas governor rating toward Democrat Gina Hinojosa.

Cook said Talarico remains right-side up in favorability while Paxton is underwater by as much as double digits.

On Aug. 18, Fox News’s America’s Newsroom moved the race from Lean Republican to Toss Up.

August polling showed Hinojosa closing the gap with Abbott.

Abbott’s campaign has a $67 million war chest, 20 times Hinojosa’s.

270 to Win’s average showed Talarico with a 2-point lead.

The UT poll surveyed 1,200 registered Texas voters Aug. 5–13.