Iceland votes Saturday on whether to reopen EU accession talks

Iceland won the series of confrontations known as the Cod Wars, and control of those waters became the foundation of the volcanic island's economy.

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COPENHAGEN/REYKJAVIK, Aug 19 (Reuters) - Gylfi Geirsson and Sigurbjorn Svavarsson cut British fishing trawl wires and dodged Royal Navy frigates on board small Icelandic coastguard vessels 50 years ago, using guerrilla-like tactics to keep foreign fleets out of their waters.

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"The situation as I find it today is that it's the fear that we might lose control of what we fought for," said Svavarsson, who served as a first mate on the coastguard vessel Aegir in 1976 at the height of the Cod Wars and will likely vote against restarting talks.

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Fisheries remain central to Iceland's economy and identity alike, alongside aluminium and tourism.

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Iceland sits on a geopolitical bottleneck, straddling the so-called GIUK gap between Greenland, Iceland and Britain that NATO has long treated as a crucial doorway for watching Russian naval movements toward the open ocean.

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Much of the cod eaten in British fish and chip shops today comes from Icelandic waters, a legacy of the very dispute that Geirsson and Svavarsson fought.

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With Russia and China both pushing to secure Arctic resources, questions about global alliances are becoming increasingly vital to the 270,000 Icelandic voters heading to the ballot boxes across the weather-beaten volcanic island.

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A Gallup poll in mid-August gave the "Yes" camp a wafer-thin advantage, with 51.5 percent support.

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But it's an issue that cuts two ways, and polls suggest the referendum is on a knife-edge.

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With Russia and China both pushing to secure Arctic resources, questions about global alliances are becoming increasingly vital to the 270,000 Icelandic voters heading to the ballot boxes across the weather-beaten volcanic island.

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"This issue is not settled," the Social Democrat member of parliament said of U.S. ambitions to control Greenland, whose coast is less than 300 kilometers from Iceland.

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At the same time, Iceland is a member of the European Economic Area, and it's estimated that it already adopts about three-quarters of the EU's rules through this.

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The core consideration, then, for the referendum is whether it is worth moving beyond that EEA relationship.

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It's also part of the Schengen Area, allowing for passport-free travel with most EU countries.

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Iceland's parliament, the Althing, is one of the oldest electoral assemblies in the world, dating back more than a millennium.

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Hannah Sigurðardóttir, a 68-year-old employee of Iceland's medicines agency, also raised concerns about the reliability of the U.S. as an ally.

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Sporting a pin reading Áfram Ísland, or Forward Iceland, the slogan of the "No" campaign, on the lapel of his gray suit jacket, Þórðarson condemned the U.S. president's comments on Greenland.

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Outside of the Reykjavík area, where about two-thirds of the country lives, voters are more likely to put a "No" on their ballots.

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Sporting a pin reading Áfram Ísland, or Forward Iceland, the slogan of the "No" campaign, on the lapel of his gray suit jacket, Þórðarson condemned the U.S. president's comments on Greenland.

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Iceland's July inflation was running at an annual rate of 5.6 percent, nearly double the euro area's.

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Outside of the Reykjavík area, where about two-thirds of the country lives, voters are more likely to put a "No" on their ballots.

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Farmers cultivating the black volcanic soil along the road to the town adorn their bales of hay with the "No" campaign's Áfram Ísland slogan.

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Selfoss is a town of 10,000 people about an hour's drive southeast of Reykjavík.

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The August 29 vote has been framed by the Icelandic government as a "now or never" opportunity to embrace the prospect of EU membership, or maintain the country's status quo in the European Economic Area, a position that guarantees Reykjavík access to the European single market but not a seat at Brussels' table.

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Any decision to formally join the EU could require a second referendum, potentially as early as 2028.

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The reversal came in 2024, when a pro-EU coalition government took office.

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A July poll by Maskína put support for "Yes" at 53% and "No" at 47%, suggesting that turnout could be pivotal in determining the outcome.

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By then, Iceland's economy had recovered strongly, removing one of the main incentives for joining, and public support for EU membership had faded as negotiations got stuck on the sensitive issue of fisheries.

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Fishing has become a central and sensitive part of the debate, not only for economic reasons — fish and marine products account for around 40% of Iceland's exports — but also because control over the country's territorial waters is deeply tied to national sovereignty and identity.

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The main sticking point in any future negotiations would likely be Iceland's relationship with the EU's Common Fisheries Policy (CFP), which sets catch limits and fishing quotas among EU member states.

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Icelandic government figures have acknowledged that the chapters covering agriculture and fisheries are likely to be the most difficult to close.

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Iceland has already closed 11 of the 33 chapters that make up the accession negotiations, with Brussels expecting the process to conclude within one or two years since the country is already deeply integrated in the European single market.

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The accession process was suspended in 2013 before a formal negotiating position on fisheries had been adopted.

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An Icelandic government report on the matter points to "issues such as formal authority over marine resources, limitations to investments and advocacy at international level."

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The dispute was particularly acute over mackerel, the so-called "mackerel wars," because Iceland had adopted a unilateral position on mackerel quotas that the EU considered excessive, while Iceland objected to arrangements reached between the EU, Norway and the Faroe Islands.

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In practice, that would require the European Commission to establish a task force similar to the one already in place for the current frontrunner in EU accession talks, Montenegro, putting further pressure on an already strained enlargement machinery.

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Reykjavik is highly likely to seek special arrangements or exemptions from the CFP, which Brussels may be forced to contemplate in the negotiations.

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The Commission has made enlargement a top political priority.

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Iceland itself has also framed the vote as a pivotal decision, meaning a "no" vote would silence the debate around the country's prospective EU membership for years or even decades, as PM Frostadóttir and the ruling pro-European parties would suffer a major defeat, whilst anti-EU forces would be bolstered.

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But privately, there is acknowledgement that a green light to negotiations would be a major boost to its policy of enlargement.

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Yet this could also open a Pandora's box, with Irish fishing organisations now calling for the same exemptions for its industry as any granted to Iceland under future accession talks.

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Unlike Iceland, the EU's other candidate countries are poorer than the bloc's existing members, with markedly lower GDP per capita levels.

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A "No" vote would also raise fresh questions about how Reykjavík can use the current frameworks to deepen cooperation with the EU on issues like security and defence in a shifting geopolitical landscape.

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The referendum is legally advisory, although the government has said it will follow the result.

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The official referendum website says the government will follow the result despite its advisory legal status.

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The vote was approved by Iceland's parliament, Althingi, on May 28.

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Parliament and the foreign minister would also have to approve the treaty, while constitutional changes would be required before Iceland could join the EU.

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The country's official referendum information website says negotiations would aim to produce an accession treaty.

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Parliament and the foreign minister would also have to approve the treaty, while constitutional changes would be required before Iceland could join the EU.

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A "no" vote would prevent negotiations from restarting, although it would not legally rule out another attempt at some point in the future.

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Iceland's application was never formally withdrawn, according to the Icelandic government's information on the referendum process.

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Iceland is already deeply integrated with Europe through the European Economic Area and the Schengen system, while retaining its own currency and remaining outside the EU's political institutions.

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Now, after more than a decade on hold, membership talks are back on the agenda.

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While fear of invasion by a US president who appears to have difficulties distinguishing between Iceland and Greenland, has convinced some Icelanders of the need to join the EU, the island is divided.

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And on both sides of the debate, Brexit has become a watchword.

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In the Eurosceptic camp the UK's struggles to leave on its terms are presented as very good reasons not to join.

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Fishing is of phenomenal value to Iceland: the total value of fisheries assets for 2023 were put at 1,059 bn Icelandic Króna (about €7.3bn).

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In addition to fishing, the arguments against joining the EU include agriculture, fears about maintaining the high living standards of a progressive country – a world leader on equality – and Iceland's relationship with the US.

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As experts have warned, Iceland may struggle to ensure that voters have clear and correct information about the vote.

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And then there are the domestic and international forces at play – in tandem with the election-altering potential of AI tools.

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Icelanders began casting early ballots on July 27 and any accession treaty would be put to a second referendum.

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EU diplomats told the same agency that reopening talks with a wealthy country that is easy to integrate could improve how enlargement is sold to voters wary of new members.

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Iceland has a population of around 400,000.

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Montenegro, which hopes to join in 2028, is also small but far poorer per head.

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Successive governments have resisted arrangements that would place Icelandic waters under the Common Fisheries Policy, which sets quotas and access at EU level.

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When all survey participants are included, 44.5 per cent say they will vote "yes", 39.4 per cent "no", while 14.6 per cent are undecided.

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Voters will be given two options: "Yes" or "No".

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By place of residence, support is strongest in the capital area, where 59 per cent of respondents back reopening negotiations.

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Support for reopening negotiations stands at 53.4 per cent among men and 52.6 per cent among women.

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The lowest level of support is in Eastern Iceland (Austurland), where only 23.9 per cent say they will vote "yes".

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The most supportive age group is 40–49-year-olds, with 59.5 per cent saying they will vote "yes".

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A further 1.5 per cent refused to answer.

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The strongest support comes from voters of the Reform Party, where 95.3 per cent say they will vote "yes".

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The most sceptical are those aged 70 and older, with 53.1 per cent intending to vote "no".

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Among 18–29-year-olds, the figure is 52.3 per cent.

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Second are voters of the Social Democratic Alliance, at 91 per cent.

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The strongest opposition comes from voters of the Centre Party, where 88.6 per cent say they will vote "no".

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A similar position is held by 85.3 per cent of Independence Party supporters and 68.9 per cent of Progressive Party voters.

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Among supporters of the People's Party, 55.7 per cent support reopening talks.

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The Maskína survey was conducted between 2 and 11 June on a sample of 1,856 people.

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A total of 1,558 respondents stated their position on the referendum question.

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