At least 35,000 excess deaths tied to Europe's back-to-back summer heatwaves

At least 35,000 more people died during Europe's four record-breaking, back-to-back heatwaves this summer than would normally be expected, according to incomplete figures from barely half the continent.

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Excess mortality in three of the EU's larger countries – Germany, France and Spain – alone has already exceeded 25,000, according to the provisional national figures, and experts say the toll will rise significantly once August totals are consolidated.

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Records fell for three straight days in Germany in late June, when 46 stations topped 40C (104F), while Spain endured persistent highs above 42C.

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Figures from the Carlos III health institute's mortality monitoring system suggest 4,947 deaths in Spain can be attributed to heat between May and this week, making 2026 Spain's worst year on record for heat-related deaths, exceeding the 4,520 recorded in 2022.

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Records fell for three straight days in Germany in late June, when 46 stations topped 40C (104F), while Spain endured persistent highs above 42C.

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Figures from the Carlos III health institute's mortality monitoring system suggest 4,947 deaths in Spain can be attributed to heat between May and this week, making 2026 Spain's worst year on record for heat-related deaths, exceeding the 4,520 recorded in 2022.

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Systematically compiled EU-wide excess mortality figures, available since 2008, show the only other summer week in which a higher rate of additional deaths has been recorded was in July 2022, when Covid-19 was still active.

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France, where more than 500 weather stations recorded temperatures higher than 40C and at one stage 98% of the country was under heat alerts, reports an initial "all causes" excess death figure and definitive attribution later.

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France, where more than 500 weather stations recorded temperatures higher than 40C and at one stage 98% of the country was under heat alerts, reports an initial "all causes" excess death figure and definitive attribution later.

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Italy, whose national heat surveillance system uses local municipal data, meaning it is often subject to significant delays, has so far only reported incomplete real-time indicators rather than a consolidated national death toll.

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Modelling suggests 2,700 more people died than usual between 22 and 28 June alone and epidemiologists have said the country's total heat-attributable death toll would probably be between 5,000 and 8,000 by the time it is formally recorded.

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A rapid modelling study cited by the European Commission estimates that 1,070 more people than usual died in Poland during the late-June heatwave, and Swiss public health authority data suggests excess heat-related deaths of 220 in the same week.

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Agence France-Presse has calculated that areas inhabited by more than 80 million Europeans experienced temperatures above 40C this summer.

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A rapid modelling study cited by the European Commission estimates that 1,070 more people than usual died in Poland during the late-June heatwave, and Swiss public health authority data suggests excess heat-related deaths of 220 in the same week.

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Early figures from Luxembourg, Greece, Romania, Bulgaria and Denmark indicate about 40 excess deaths in each of those countries.

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Europe saw at least 30,000 excess deaths across a blistering summer of back-to-back heatwaves and drought which scientists have blamed on man-made climate change, according to provisional figures.

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Between mid-July and mid-August, the continent's EuroMomo monitoring platform estimates that Europe saw more than 32,000 excess deaths -- with summer yet to come to an end.

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An AFP count of those tallies found 33,000 excess deaths or deaths directly linked to the heat across just eight countries: Austria, Belgium, England, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Portugal and Spain.

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According to EuroMomo's latest weekly estimates, the last week of June appears to have been the summer's deadliest, with nearly 16,000 excess deaths recorded.

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The first week of July follows in second place with some 8,000 deaths.

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While EuroMomo does not publish breakdowns of deaths by country, various national health authorities have published provisional tolls covering comparable periods stretching roughly between the end of May and August.

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The monitor's model only includes official statistics from 23 European countries and excludes part of the continent's east.

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The UK health and safety authority estimates that England saw 2,877 heat-related deaths across May and June's heatwaves, threatening to topple the historic tally of 2,985 from the summer of 2022.

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Austria's AGES agency for health and food security lists June's tally of heatwave-related deaths as 396.

According to the public data, available from 2017, that level is previously unseen for the month in the Alpine nation.

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For its part, Portugal saw more than 600 excess deaths between mid-June and the end of July, according to figures from the DGS health authority analysed by AFP.

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Around 14,000 people in Germany are estimated to have died in connection with periods of extreme heat so far this year, the country's public health institute said on Thursday. That corresponds to almost 17 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants, according to the latest report by the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) on heat-related mortality, which covers the period from April 6 to August 9.

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The largest number of estimated deaths, 7,040, occurred among people aged 85 and over.

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Around 3,450 deaths were recorded among those aged 75 to 84 and 2,170 among people aged 65 to 74.

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Around 3,450 deaths were recorded among those aged 75 to 84 and 2,170 among people aged 65 to 74.

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By comparison, 3,073 heat-related deaths were recorded during the same period last year and 1,890 in 2024.

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By comparison, 3,073 heat-related deaths were recorded during the same period last year and 1,890 in 2024.

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The country experienced some of its worst wildfires in living memory in July, which forced the evacuation of tens of thousands of people.

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It was also mainland Spain's driest July on record.

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Together they mean the country – parts of which are ill-equipped to deal with heat, and where air-conditioning is scarce – has endured a record 52 days of heatwaves since mid-June.

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The figures came as an AFP analysis of data from the national weather service Meteo-France showed the number of days of heatwaves this year far exceeds the 33 heatwave days recorded in 2022 and the 22 days seen during the deadly summer of 2003.

The country has had only two periods of respite, lasting three and eight days respectively, since the first heatwave began on June 17.

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France has recorded more heatwave days in 2026 than in any other year since records began in 1947.

The previous standout year, 2022, also saw three separate heatwaves, but their combined duration was almost 20 days shorter than this year's total.

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France has been hit by three summer heatwaves in quick succession: a 14-day spell in June, 16 days in July and another lasting 22 days that began in late July and has yet to be officially declared over as of August 18.

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That added to the 5,764 excess deaths recorded from June 17 to 30, and the 300 deaths identified so far during the year's first period of high temperatures in late May, make for a total of 7,307.

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That added to the 5,764 excess deaths recorded from June 17 to 30, and the 300 deaths identified so far during the year's first period of high temperatures in late May, make for a total of 7,307.

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A spell of unusually warm weather in May, for example, was not intense enough to meet France's threshold for a heatwave.

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But 2026 has set another milestone, with June 24 and 25 the hottest days ever recorded on average across mainland France, according to the national temperature indicator, which combines daytime and nighttime readings from 30 reference weather stations.

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Extreme heat contributed to more than 15,000 deaths in France in 2003, but the main heatwave was concentrated over about two weeks in August, following a less severe week-long episode in June.

The August 2003 heatwave nevertheless remains the most severe observed to date, based on an indicator combining heat duration and intensity.

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In July, in Italia, the number of people aged 85 and over who died as a result of the heatwave rose by 8 per cent, whilst in Germany, 14,000 people had already died by the summer of 2026.

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The rise in heat-related deaths amongst the over-85s is confirmed by data from the Ministry of Health.

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For the 64–74 and 75–84 age groups, "mortality was, in particular, lower than expected. Where excess mortality was recorded, it affected the most vulnerable, namely those aged over 85, particularly in the north".

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Analysis of the tables shows that excess mortality, where recorded, affected the most vulnerable, namely those aged over 85 (+8 per cent), particularly in the north.

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In July, the third heatwave to hit Italian cities had an impact on daily mortality rates amongst the population – specifically amongst those aged 65 and over – which was 'in line with expectations'.

For the 64–74 and 75–84 age groups, "mortality was, in particular, lower than expected. Where excess mortality was recorded, it affected the most vulnerable, namely those aged over 85, particularly in the north".

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This is according to the Monthly Report on the heatwave monitoring and alert system and on the surveillance of daily mortality and A&E admissions for the period 1–31 July, published on the Ministry of Health's website.

The data are collected by the Department of Epidemiology of the Lazio Regional Health Service (Dep) on behalf of the Ministry of Health.

According to the experts, 'despite the high temperatures, the impact on public health in Italia has been limited'.

Coinciding with the July heatwaves, from 12 July onwards, 'no significant changes have in fact been observed in the trend of A&E visits, apart from slight increases in Venice, Rome, Reggio Calabria and Palermo'.

Analysis of data on daily mortality rates amongst those aged 65 and over shows mortality figures in line with experts' expectations.

In the 64–74 and 75–84 age groups, in particular, mortality was lower than expected.

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Restricting the analysis to the third heatwave, 'there was a significant excess in mortality among the population aged over 65 in some southern cities (Reggio Calabria, Messina, Palermo and Cagliari) and, at the threshold of statistical significance, in Campobasso, Pescara and Latina', the report highlights.

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In relation to the population, the highest rates were recorded in Saarland, with around 46 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants, and in Rhineland-Palatinate, with around 42.

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Hesse, with 31 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants, and Baden-Württemberg, with around 28, were also particularly hard hit.

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In relation to the population, the highest rates were recorded in Saarland, with around 46 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants, and in Rhineland-Palatinate, with around 42.

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